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摘要：12月份的出口額甚至比上年同期降低了3％。然而，第四季度中國的貿易順差仍上升到創紀錄的4570億美元年化增長速度–比2007年同期增長了50％。2008年12月之前的一年裏進口額下降了21％。日本銀行野村證券預計中國今年的出口會下降6％–這是其25年多來的首次下降。另一方面，中國的進口可能會有所增長（大約3％）。但是，中國從世界其它地方進口减少的一個更令人擔心的原因是：中國國內需求的疲軟。
來源
Beijing puzzle
中國貿易迷局
Jan 14th 2009 | HONG KONG
From Economist.com
Why is China’s trade surplus still growing when its exports have collapsed?
爲何出口額大幅跌落後，中國的貿易順差仍在增長呢？
AFP
REVISED figures published this week show that in 2007 China overtook Germany to become the world’s third-biggest economy. At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world’s biggest exporter, but for 2008 as a whole its exports remained smaller than Germany’s, because of a slump in the final months of the year. China’s exports tumbled by 13% (in dollar terms), in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier. Yet, despite weak exports, China’s trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter-50% bigger than in the same period of 2007. What is going on?
本周發布的經過修正的數據顯示：中國在2007年超越德國，成爲世界第三大經濟體。在去年年初，中國也有望成爲世界最大的出口國，但由于去年最後幾個月出口額的大幅降低，整個2008年中國的出口額仍小于德國。中國出口額在去年第四季度暴降13％（以美元計算），而且其12月份的出口額甚至比上年同期降低了3％。然而，儘管出口疲軟，第四季度中國的貿易順差仍上升到創紀錄的4570億美元年化增長速度–比2007年同期增長了50％。這是怎麽回事呢？
In the first half of 2008 China’s trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart). But since then, although exports stumbled, its imports fell by much more-down by 21% in the 12 months to December (compared with over 30% growth in the first half). The slump in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for buyers to get letters of credit to guarantee payment. Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices and weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports. Inputs for export processing account for over 50% of China’s total imports, and the sharp fall in purchases suggests that producers expect exports to weaken further.
在2008年上半年，中國貿易順差確實縮水了（如圖所示）。但是從那開始，儘管出口在下跌，但是進口下跌的更厲害–2008年12月之前的一年裏進口額下降了21％，而2008年上半年則是增長超過30％。全球信貸緊縮更加劇了進出口這樣的同時下跌，因爲信用緊縮使得買家很難從銀行獲取保證付款的信用證。由于石油與大宗商品價格的下跌和用于出口的原料、部件的進口疲軟，進口額同樣也被拉了下來。用于出口加工商品的進口占到超過中國進口總額的50％，大量减少的買進表明生産商預計出口會進一步下滑。
But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened. Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but construction-a big user of imported raw materials-has collapsed. The impact of this on imports was exaggerated in the fourth quarter by an aggressive run down of stocks of steel and other materials.
但是，中國從世界其它地方進口减少的一個更令人擔心的原因是：中國國內需求的疲軟。消費和製造業投資目前爲止還算比較可以，但是建設投資（進口原料的重要消費者）却已顯著下降。這對進口的影響在第四季度因鋼鐵和其它原材料的股票狂跌而顯得尤爲嚴重。
With no end in sight for the rich world’s recession, China’s exports will continue to slide this year. Nomura, a Japanese bank, forecasts a drop of 6%-the first annual decline for more than 25 years. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to grow, albeit by a modest 3%. Imports of components for assembly and re-export will continue to decline, but once the government’s fiscal stimulus package kicks in, the large planned increase in infrastructure investment will boost imports of raw materials and machinery. If so, China’s trade surplus will shrink in 2009 and, for the first time in years, become a drag on GDP growth.
由于發達國家的衰退毫無結束的迹象，今年中國的出口還會繼續下滑。日本銀行野村證券預計中國今年的出口會下降6％–這是其25年多來的首次下降。另一方面，中國的進口可能會有所增長，儘管不是太多（大約3％）。用于組裝和再出口的零部件進口將繼續下滑，但是一旦政府的財政刺激計劃得以實施，基礎設施投資的大幅增長會促使原材料和機械設備進口的增長。如果那樣的話，中國貿易順差在2009年會下降，這也是其數年來首次拖累GDP的增長。
The collapse in exports in recent months and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan. After rising fairly steadily against the dollar over the past couple of years, the yuan has been held broadly constant since July.
近幾個月的出口大幅下挫以及其導致的中國南部大量失業已經引發了人們對中國政府將會使人民幣貶值的猜測。在對美元連續升值了好幾年後，人民幣匯率從七月以來一直保持穩定。
However, not only would a yuan depreciation risk provoking a protectionist backlash from America’s new government, it would also do little to help Chinese producers. China’s problem is not competitiveness: its exports are holding up much better than those in South Korea or Taiwan, which fell by 17% and 42% respectively in the 12 months to December, despite weaker exchange rates. The best way for China to support its economy-and to help unwind global trade imbalances-is instead to bolster domestic demand.
然而，人民幣貶值不僅僅會引發美國新政府的貿易保護主義反彈風險，而且對中國製造商也幫助甚微。中國的問題不是競爭力：中國出口的情况比韓國和臺灣好多了，後邊這兩者分別在去年12月之前的一年內出口額分別下降了17％和42％，儘管其貨幣匯率仍在降低。中國支持其經濟–而且幫助全球回復貿易均衡–最好的辦法就是增長其國內需求。
One piece of good news this week is that following interest-rate cuts and the government’s scrapping of tight restrictions on bank lending, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer. Thanks to the healthier state of its banking system, China is perhaps the only big economy where credit has heated up rather than frozen in recent months. If sustained, this could help to support domestic spending-and hence imports. China’s economy certainly can not depend on exports over the next year.
本周的一個好消息是：隨著降息和政府對銀行放貸限制的摒弃，在去年12月之前的一年內，銀行貸款總額增漲了19％，而去年夏天其增長率只是14％。多虧了其相比過去更加健康的銀行體系，中國可能是最近幾個月唯一一個增加信貸而不是緊縮信貸的大型經濟體。如果這樣持續下去的話，對于中國國內消費非常有利，于是對其進口也會幫助頗多。中國的經濟在明年一年肯定不能依賴出口了。
譯者：rushor
來源
Beijing puzzle
中國貿易迷局
Jan 14th 2009 | HONG KONG
From Economist.com
Why is China’s trade surplus still growing when its exports have collapsed?
爲何出口額大幅跌落後，中國的貿易順差仍在增長呢？
AFP
REVISED figures published this week show that in 2007 China overtook Germany to become the world’s third-biggest economy. At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world’s biggest exporter, but for 2008 as a whole its exports remained smaller than Germany’s, because of a slump in the final months of the year. China’s exports tumbled by 13% (in dollar terms), in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier. Yet, despite weak exports, China’s trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter-50% bigger than in the same period of 2007. What is going on?
本周發布的經過修正的數據顯示：中國在2007年超越德國，成爲世界第三大經濟體。在去年年初，中國也有望成爲世界最大的出口國，但由于去年最後幾個月出口額的大幅降低，整個2008年中國的出口額仍小于德國。中國出口額在去年第四季度暴降13％（以美元計算），而且其12月份的出口額甚至比上年同期降低了3％。然而，儘管出口疲軟，第四季度中國的貿易順差仍上升到創紀錄的4570億美元年化增長速度–比2007年同期增長了50％。這是怎麽回事呢？
In the first half of 2008 China’s trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart). But since then, although exports stumbled, its imports fell by much more-down by 21% in the 12 months to December (compared with over 30% growth in the first half). The slump in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for buyers to get letters of credit to guarantee payment. Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices and weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports. Inputs for export processing account for over 50% of China’s total imports, and the sharp fall in purchases suggests that producers expect exports to weaken further.
在2008年上半年，中國貿易順差確實縮水了（如圖所示）。但是從那開始，儘管出口在下跌，但是進口下跌的更厲害–2008年12月之前的一年裏進口額下降了21％，而2008年上半年則是增長超過30％。全球信貸緊縮更加劇了進出口這樣的同時下跌，因爲信用緊縮使得買家很難從銀行獲取保證付款的信用證。由于石油與大宗商品價格的下跌和用于出口的原料、部件的進口疲軟，進口額同樣也被拉了下來。用于出口加工商品的進口占到超過中國進口總額的50％，大量减少的買進表明生産商預計出口會進一步下滑。
But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened. Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but construction-a big user of imported raw materials-has collapsed. The impact of this on imports was exaggerated in the fourth quarter by an aggressive run down of stocks of steel and other materials.
但是，中國從世界其它地方進口减少的一個更令人擔心的原因是：中國國內需求的疲軟。消費和製造業投資目前爲止還算比較可以，但是建設投資（進口原料的重要消費者）却已顯著下降。這對進口的影響在第四季度因鋼鐵和其它原材料的股票狂跌而顯得尤爲嚴重。
With no end in sight for the rich world’s recession, China’s exports will continue to slide this year. Nomura, a Japanese bank, forecasts a drop of 6%-the first annual decline for more than 25 years. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to grow, albeit by a modest 3%. Imports of components for assembly and re-export will continue to decline, but once the government’s fiscal stimulus package kicks in, the large planned increase in infrastructure investment will boost imports of raw materials and machinery. If so, China’s trade surplus will shrink in 2009 and, for the first time in years, become a drag on GDP growth.
由于發達國家的衰退毫無結束的迹象，今年中國的出口還會繼續下滑。日本銀行野村證券預計中國今年的出口會下降6％–這是其25年多來的首次下降。另一方面，中國的進口可能會有所增長，儘管不是太多（大約3％）。用于組裝和再出口的零部件進口將繼續下滑，但是一旦政府的財政刺激計劃得以實施，基礎設施投資的大幅增長會促使原材料和機械設備進口的增長。如果那樣的話，中國貿易順差在2009年會下降，這也是其數年來首次拖累GDP的增長。
The collapse in exports in recent months and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan. After rising fairly steadily against the dollar over the past couple of years, the yuan has been held broadly constant since July.
近幾個月的出口大幅下挫以及其導致的中國南部大量失業已經引發了人們對中國政府將會使人民幣貶值的猜測。在對美元連續升值了好幾年後，人民幣匯率從七月以來一直保持穩定。
However, not only would a yuan depreciation risk provoking a protectionist backlash from America’s new government, it would also do little to help Chinese producers. China’s problem is not competitiveness: its exports are holding up much better than those in South Korea or Taiwan, which fell by 17% and 42% respectively in the 12 months to December, despite weaker exchange rates. The best way for China to support its economy-and to help unwind global trade imbalances-is instead to bolster domestic demand.
然而，人民幣貶值不僅僅會引發美國新政府的貿易保護主義反彈風險，而且對中國製造商也幫助甚微。中國的問題不是競爭力：中國出口的情况比韓國和臺灣好多了，後邊這兩者分別在去年12月之前的一年內出口額分別下降了17％和42％，儘管其貨幣匯率仍在降低。中國支持其經濟–而且幫助全球回復貿易均衡–最好的辦法就是增長其國內需求。
One piece of good news this week is that following interest-rate cuts and the government’s scrapping of tight restrictions on bank lending, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer. Thanks to the healthier state of its banking system, China is perhaps the only big economy where credit has heated up rather than frozen in recent months. If sustained, this could help to support domestic spending-and hence imports. China’s economy certainly can not depend on exports over the next year.
本周的一個好消息是：隨著降息和政府對銀行放貸限制的摒弃，在去年12月之前的一年內，銀行貸款總額增漲了19％，而去年夏天其增長率只是14％。多虧了其相比過去更加健康的銀行體系，中國可能是最近幾個月唯一一個增加信貸而不是緊縮信貸的大型經濟體。如果這樣持續下去的話，對于中國國內消費非常有利，于是對其進口也會幫助頗多。中國的經濟在明年一年肯定不能依賴出口了。
譯者：rushor
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