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評：全球經濟成長主要建立在美國的過度消費上，美國人開始儲蓄，沒有其它國家能獨善其身。美國的消費會推動其它的家的貨幣升值，從這個角度看來，如今情況反轉，則歐元是走數年的空頭。ECB曾發表過這樣的談話，一次降息2碼是沒有格調的行為，但還是不得不迫於現實。歐洲內部的差異將愈來愈大，關於「歐元崩潰」的言論將再起，不過那時可以就是歐元的低點。英國已經宣佈實施零利率政策，嘴巴上雖然說不是，但身體是很誠實的。英國是歐洲的領先指標，大家來觀察看看吧。/Job
來源
The ECB
歐洲中央銀行
Rebels without a pause
“行”在江湖，身不由己
Jan 15th 2009
From Economist.com
A shrinking economy forces the ECB to cut interest rates again, to 2%
經濟衰退迫使歐洲央行再次降息（至2%）
WHEN policymakers around the world are slashing interest rates, it is hard for a central bank to stand out from the crowd. The European Central Bank (ECB) tried to rebel but failed: on Thursday January 15th it cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, to 2%, having hinted at a pause only a month ago.
值全球决策之人均大幅砍息之時，單個央行實難獨自清”高”。歐洲中央銀行（ECB）曾試圖反抗，結果却無功而返–本月15日周二，在暗示將暫停本輪擴張僅一月之後，它再次降息半個百分點至2%。
The bank’s rate-setters had hoped that they could take a break this month in order to assess their past handiwork-the cumulative reductions that took the benchmark rate from 4.25% in early October to 2.5% by early December. No such luck: this is an equal-opportunities economic crisis, and the euro area is in it just as deep as America, Britain and the rest.
該行决策者曾冀望本月可以稍事休整，以便對前期舉措有所估量–自10月初始（4.25%），其基準利率在兩月之內累計下降了1.75%。可惜美夢難圓：本次危機對大家可謂一視同仁，歐元區經濟所陷泥淖之深恰如英美及其他地區。
The economy’s vital signs have looked worryingly faint since the ECB’s rate-setting council last met. Industrial production fell by 1.6% in November, following similarly large drops in the previous two months. Around the world, people are buying fewer big-ticket items such as new cars and home appliances, and firms are delaying investment. That hurts the euro area’s largest economies-Germany, France and Italy-with their manufacturing bent. Industrial sentiment across the euro area slumped in December to its lowest level since comparable records began in 1985.
自ECB前次議息會議以來，其下轄經濟已日見頽唐。工業産出于11月下滑1.6%，與其前兩月如出一轍。環顧全球，大件商品（例如汽車與家用電器）銷售正日漸下滑，而商業投資亦屢遭延遲。結果歐元區最大經濟體（德國、法國、意大利）因其製造業偏重而備受其害。上月工業信心指數已跌至其1985年誕生以來的歷史低位，單一貨幣區內可謂遍野哀鴻。
Germany is the most export-dependent economy and the bellwether of industrial Europe. It has suffered an alarming collapse in its exports and factory orders. Spending at home is under pressure too. The euro area’s consumers have high savings and low debt by rich-world standards but they are nervous all the same. Unemployment is rising, even in Germany and France, where the jobs markets had been more solid. The run of bad news suggests that the euro-area economy is in deep recession. Julian Callow of Barclays Capital reckons that it shrank by as much as America’s in the fourth quarter.
身爲歐洲工業各國之領頭羊，德國對出口依賴最爲嚴重。出口及工業訂單的急劇下挫已令其備受其苦，如今國內支出亦是壓力重重。相對富國標準，歐元區消費者儲蓄豐厚且債務微薄，然而却依舊顧慮頻頻。即便在就業市場已有所改善的德法兩國，失業率也正在上升。如此惡訊頻仍意味著歐元區已然深陷衰退。巴克萊資本（Barclays Capital）的Julian Callow認爲，該區經濟第四季度下滑程度將不亞于美國。
Consumers are pulling back fastest in Spain and Ireland. Unemployment in both countries is rocketing and tax revenues are wilting after housing busts. In the past week Standard and Poor’s, a credit-rating agency, said that the triple-A stamp given to the public debt of Ireland and Spain may be downgraded. On Wednesday the agency cut Greece’s credit rating. It has also put Portugal’s double-A rating under review.
西班牙與愛爾蘭的消費者畏縮最盛。彼處，失業正大幅飈升，而稅入則在房市泡沫破滅之後萎蔫不振。上周，信評機構標準普爾（Standard and Poor’s）聲稱，頒與西、愛兩國公債的最高評級或將有所下調。本周三該機構砍低了希臘的信評等級；葡萄牙的雙A評級亦入再審之列。
Lower credit ratings will constrain the ability of governments to support their economies. Within the euro zone Germany has the greatest means-and highest standing in financial markets-to use fiscal policy to boost spending. It belatedly beefed up its fiscal-stimulus package this week in response to the worsening economic conditions.
信用評級下降將對政府扶持經濟之能力有所牽制。德國是歐元區內最富資本以財政擴張來促進支出的國家–其金融市場亦最富聲望–却遲至本周才爲其財政刺激方案添湯加料，以應對不斷惡化的經濟局勢。
If Germany’s government now appears rattled by the unfolding economic drama, the ECB is still trying to look unfazed. At the press conference following the interest-rate decision the bank’s president, Jean-Claude Trichet, said the “next important rendezvous” is the ECB’s meeting in March, when it will consider a fresh assessment of the economic outlook from the bank’s forecasters. He hinted that a meeting scheduled for February 5th would not be one for making decisions on cutting rates. But events might intervene again: “we are never pre-committed”, said Mr Trichet.
雖然德國政府因經濟急轉直下而顯得方寸大亂，ECB却依舊故作巋然。于降息决定後的新聞發布會上，行長特裏謝（Jean-Claude Trichet ) 說道，”下次重要會議”定于本年3月，其時，將考慮該行預測專家對經濟前景的最新評價。這無异于暗示，定于下月5日的會議將無關降息决定。只是計劃沒有變化快，正如特老所言：”我們從不做事先承諾。
The ECB’s chief is shrewd enough not to rule anything out. But his comments at the press conference suggest that the bank is extremely reluctant to follow the Federal Reserve down to zero interest rates. “It is our intention not to be in a liquidity trap”, he said. When asked what he meant by that, Mr Trichet said that when interest rates fall to “very, very low” levels it is hard to raise them again. But inflation, at 1.6% in the euro area, is already below the ECB’s target ceiling of 2% and, with slack in the economy increasing, is likely to fall much further. Mr Callow at Barclays Capital thinks that the ECB will cut interest rates by another half a percentage point in March to prevent inflation from falling too far. The planned rebellion in February will quickly be quashed.
萬事均留餘地，足顯特老之精明。然而其新聞發布會上的評論却暗示，該行極不情願跟隨美聯儲的零利率政策。他說，”流動性陷阱幷非我輩所願。”當被問及其意指如何時，特先生回答道，當利率降到”非常、非常低”的水平時，再想提息就難了。然而歐元區1.6%的通脹率已經低于ECB2%的目標頂值。隨著經濟衰退不斷加劇，它很可能繼續大幅下行。巴克萊資本的Callow先生認爲，歐洲央行將于三月再次降息半個百分點以防通脹過分下落。該行于2月的”對抗”計劃或將很快取消。
譯者：弓長貝恩
來源
The ECB
歐洲中央銀行
Rebels without a pause
“行”在江湖，身不由己
Jan 15th 2009
From Economist.com
A shrinking economy forces the ECB to cut interest rates again, to 2%
經濟衰退迫使歐洲央行再次降息（至2%）
WHEN policymakers around the world are slashing interest rates, it is hard for a central bank to stand out from the crowd. The European Central Bank (ECB) tried to rebel but failed: on Thursday January 15th it cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, to 2%, having hinted at a pause only a month ago.
值全球决策之人均大幅砍息之時，單個央行實難獨自清”高”。歐洲中央銀行（ECB）曾試圖反抗，結果却無功而返–本月15日周二，在暗示將暫停本輪擴張僅一月之後，它再次降息半個百分點至2%。
The bank’s rate-setters had hoped that they could take a break this month in order to assess their past handiwork-the cumulative reductions that took the benchmark rate from 4.25% in early October to 2.5% by early December. No such luck: this is an equal-opportunities economic crisis, and the euro area is in it just as deep as America, Britain and the rest.
該行决策者曾冀望本月可以稍事休整，以便對前期舉措有所估量–自10月初始（4.25%），其基準利率在兩月之內累計下降了1.75%。可惜美夢難圓：本次危機對大家可謂一視同仁，歐元區經濟所陷泥淖之深恰如英美及其他地區。
The economy’s vital signs have looked worryingly faint since the ECB’s rate-setting council last met. Industrial production fell by 1.6% in November, following similarly large drops in the previous two months. Around the world, people are buying fewer big-ticket items such as new cars and home appliances, and firms are delaying investment. That hurts the euro area’s largest economies-Germany, France and Italy-with their manufacturing bent. Industrial sentiment across the euro area slumped in December to its lowest level since comparable records began in 1985.
自ECB前次議息會議以來，其下轄經濟已日見頽唐。工業産出于11月下滑1.6%，與其前兩月如出一轍。環顧全球，大件商品（例如汽車與家用電器）銷售正日漸下滑，而商業投資亦屢遭延遲。結果歐元區最大經濟體（德國、法國、意大利）因其製造業偏重而備受其害。上月工業信心指數已跌至其1985年誕生以來的歷史低位，單一貨幣區內可謂遍野哀鴻。
Germany is the most export-dependent economy and the bellwether of industrial Europe. It has suffered an alarming collapse in its exports and factory orders. Spending at home is under pressure too. The euro area’s consumers have high savings and low debt by rich-world standards but they are nervous all the same. Unemployment is rising, even in Germany and France, where the jobs markets had been more solid. The run of bad news suggests that the euro-area economy is in deep recession. Julian Callow of Barclays Capital reckons that it shrank by as much as America’s in the fourth quarter.
身爲歐洲工業各國之領頭羊，德國對出口依賴最爲嚴重。出口及工業訂單的急劇下挫已令其備受其苦，如今國內支出亦是壓力重重。相對富國標準，歐元區消費者儲蓄豐厚且債務微薄，然而却依舊顧慮頻頻。即便在就業市場已有所改善的德法兩國，失業率也正在上升。如此惡訊頻仍意味著歐元區已然深陷衰退。巴克萊資本（Barclays Capital）的Julian Callow認爲，該區經濟第四季度下滑程度將不亞于美國。
Consumers are pulling back fastest in Spain and Ireland. Unemployment in both countries is rocketing and tax revenues are wilting after housing busts. In the past week Standard and Poor’s, a credit-rating agency, said that the triple-A stamp given to the public debt of Ireland and Spain may be downgraded. On Wednesday the agency cut Greece’s credit rating. It has also put Portugal’s double-A rating under review.
西班牙與愛爾蘭的消費者畏縮最盛。彼處，失業正大幅飈升，而稅入則在房市泡沫破滅之後萎蔫不振。上周，信評機構標準普爾（Standard and Poor’s）聲稱，頒與西、愛兩國公債的最高評級或將有所下調。本周三該機構砍低了希臘的信評等級；葡萄牙的雙A評級亦入再審之列。
Lower credit ratings will constrain the ability of governments to support their economies. Within the euro zone Germany has the greatest means-and highest standing in financial markets-to use fiscal policy to boost spending. It belatedly beefed up its fiscal-stimulus package this week in response to the worsening economic conditions.
信用評級下降將對政府扶持經濟之能力有所牽制。德國是歐元區內最富資本以財政擴張來促進支出的國家–其金融市場亦最富聲望–却遲至本周才爲其財政刺激方案添湯加料，以應對不斷惡化的經濟局勢。
If Germany’s government now appears rattled by the unfolding economic drama, the ECB is still trying to look unfazed. At the press conference following the interest-rate decision the bank’s president, Jean-Claude Trichet, said the “next important rendezvous” is the ECB’s meeting in March, when it will consider a fresh assessment of the economic outlook from the bank’s forecasters. He hinted that a meeting scheduled for February 5th would not be one for making decisions on cutting rates. But events might intervene again: “we are never pre-committed”, said Mr Trichet.
雖然德國政府因經濟急轉直下而顯得方寸大亂，ECB却依舊故作巋然。于降息决定後的新聞發布會上，行長特裏謝（Jean-Claude Trichet ) 說道，”下次重要會議”定于本年3月，其時，將考慮該行預測專家對經濟前景的最新評價。這無异于暗示，定于下月5日的會議將無關降息决定。只是計劃沒有變化快，正如特老所言：”我們從不做事先承諾。
The ECB’s chief is shrewd enough not to rule anything out. But his comments at the press conference suggest that the bank is extremely reluctant to follow the Federal Reserve down to zero interest rates. “It is our intention not to be in a liquidity trap”, he said. When asked what he meant by that, Mr Trichet said that when interest rates fall to “very, very low” levels it is hard to raise them again. But inflation, at 1.6% in the euro area, is already below the ECB’s target ceiling of 2% and, with slack in the economy increasing, is likely to fall much further. Mr Callow at Barclays Capital thinks that the ECB will cut interest rates by another half a percentage point in March to prevent inflation from falling too far. The planned rebellion in February will quickly be quashed.
萬事均留餘地，足顯特老之精明。然而其新聞發布會上的評論却暗示，該行極不情願跟隨美聯儲的零利率政策。他說，”流動性陷阱幷非我輩所願。”當被問及其意指如何時，特先生回答道，當利率降到”非常、非常低”的水平時，再想提息就難了。然而歐元區1.6%的通脹率已經低于ECB2%的目標頂值。隨著經濟衰退不斷加劇，它很可能繼續大幅下行。巴克萊資本的Callow先生認爲，歐洲央行將于三月再次降息半個百分點以防通脹過分下落。該行于2月的”對抗”計劃或將很快取消。
譯者：弓長貝恩
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